Research Paper: Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 under Different Reopening Strategies

I am glad to report that our paper “Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 under Different Reopening Strategies” has been accepted for publication at Scientific Reports (by @Meng_Liu_Washington_University_in_St_Louis, @Raphael_Thomadsen_Washington_University_in_St_Louis, and @Song_Yao_Washington_University_in_St_Louis). The most up-to-date version of the paper can be found at

@Song_Yao_Washington_University_in_St_Louis Interesting study. What type of criticism have to gotten on the parameters?

Hi Thomas, can you please be more specific? Which parameters do you have in mind? The “social distancing” measure calibrated using SafeGraph data?

@Song_Yao_Washington_University_in_St_Louis Oh, I was just looking at Table 1 and wondering if any reviewers thought the coefficients were too high (or low)? Just curious.

No, the reviewers did not comment on the levels of the coefficients. However, the second coefficient, omega, being smaller than 1 is in fact a key insight of our paper and main difference from the standard SIR model (whose omega=1).

nice paper